Overview
This week, the seamless pipe market experienced a slight decline as billet prices trended downward, reducing cost-side support. For our international clients, this suggests that the traditional June off-season in China, combined with persistent high social inventory and current supply-side adjustments, is creating a period of price volatility and potential softening. This provides a strategic window for buyers to assess procurement timing in light of these domestic market shifts.

Weekly Market Review

1. Price Trends According to Mysteel’s latest survey, as of June 12, the average price of 108*4.5mm seamless pipes across 28 major Chinese cities was 4,320 RMB/ton, marking a week-on-week decline of 8 RMB/ton. Nationwide pipe billet prices also trended downward, with both Shandong and Jiangsu billet prices falling by 10 RMB/ton. Mainstream seamless pipe mills have adjusted their factory-gate prices within a range of 20-50 RMB/ton.

2. Profitability and Regional Performance Profitability for re-rolling seamless pipe mills showed minor recovery. In Shandong, profits remained stable at 110 RMB/ton, while in Jiangsu, profits rose by 20 RMB/ton to reach 90 RMB/ton. In East China, the price drop in billets led to a corresponding decline in local market prices. For instance, the Shanghai market reported a price of 4,360 RMB/ton, down 20 RMB/ton. Meanwhile, downstream demand in the region has slowed due to increased rainfall and construction restrictions during exam seasons, leading to cautious trading sentiment and limited restocking interest among local distributors.

Future Outlook and Market Analysis

Inventory and Supply Dynamics Latest data from 123 sampled seamless pipe traders indicates that social inventory stands at 712,700 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons. Conversely, factory-side inventories at 30 sampled enterprises decreased by 10,500 tons to 773,200 tons, as mills reduced output. Production capacity utilization dropped to 81.03% (down 0.66%), reflecting the industry's response to waning demand.

Market Forecast for International Buyers The domestic market remains under pressure from the traditional off-season, seasonal rainfall in the south, and limited construction activity. With social inventory levels remaining high and market sentiment favoring quick turnover over long-term stockpiling, the market outlook remains cautious. For international importers, these factors indicate that seamless pipe prices are likely to experience continued downward pressure or volatile, weak performance in the coming week.

Conclusion

The overall trend for the coming week suggests a soft market characterized by cautious sentiment. As supply-side pressure eases due to reduced production but demand remains weak, buyers should continue to monitor these developments to capture the best value in their procurement planning.